Thursday, 2 June 2016

Tim Montgomerie's wrong - Cameron's toast, whatever the referendum result

Times columnist and Leave supporter Tim Montgomerie says that if Britain votes Leave, Cameron must go - Cameron has already said he will. But, says Tim, if Remain win, Tory Party Brexiteers must accept Cameron's right to stay on as leader until he chooses to step down. But Cameron has made the second option impossible: he has buried his political future under a vast avalanche of mendacity so brazen, so nauseatingly obvious that surely even the most craven "loyalist" back-bench suck-ups must realise that for him - even as he travels to Brussels to have the Iron Cross, the Croix de Guerre and the Lord Haw Haw Memorial Medal for Services to Unelected Foreign Bureaucrats pinned to his chest - the war is well and truly over. This, after all, is a man who has either made the following claims about what will happen if Britain frees itself from the EU's enervating death-grip, or has omitted to correct such claims made by his Remain campaign supporters:

Many of us will lose our jobs (the estimate started at 3,000,000 but has gone down a bit in the face of sustained laughter)
There will be a year-long recession
Cameron's failed EU "renegotiation" means we're dealing with a "reformed" EU
The economy will contract by 6%, leaving us "permanently poorer"
The NHS will be badly hit
Access to cutting-edge medicines might be affected
House prices will collapse by 10% - 18% by 2018
The value of the pound will plummet
Our universities won't be able to attract the best students
Terrorists will flock to Britain
We'll be less able to defend ourselves against attacks
Nobody will trade with us (the world's 5th largest economy)
Families will be £4,300 a year worse off
Britain's wildlife will suffer (no - I'm not kidding)
America will refuse to sign a trade deal with us (said the man who won't be president in eight months' time)
ISIS and Al Qaeda leaders would welcome a Brexit vote

On and on it goes - one lie, one farcical exaggeration piled on top of the other until the whole malodorous, tottering mountain of political ordure threatens to collapse, covering Cameron and Osborne and Tory turncoats like Phillip Hammond, Theresay May and Sajid Javid in a pile of their own filth. Even if it doesn't, and they somehow manage to keep the whole sordid edifice upright until the day of the vote, they'll all be smelling pretty damned rank for a very long time. While the lesser lights might - just might - salvage their careers out of this unholy, mendacious mess, it's inconceivable that Lord Snooty and Flashman will manage to: incredibly well-paid jobs in the EU and the City beckon, and good riddance to both of them. Even the Conservative Party - which, over the years, has displayed an almost infinite capacity for tolerating lies and insults and bullying from its own leaders - has its limits. Whatever happens on 23rd June, the two lying, bullying, arrogant posh boys currently in charge will have stretched Tory tolerance past breaking point. They'll have won the battle, but they'll have sacrificed themselves for the interests of a bunch of foreigners who really couldn't give a stuff about this country or its annoying, bloody-minded people.

The EU is doomed - socially, politically, and economically. But we have a chance to get off the train before it smashes into the buffers. As Andy Murray tweeted about another referendum ' "Let's do this!" Whether we do or not, Cameron and Osborne are through.

I'll leave you with a chart showing the EU funding received by many of those organisations which have been most vocal in urging us to stay on the Oblivion Express:

To their increasingly desperate, clamorous entreaties to stay, I would simply respond with a direct quotation from one of my relatives: "D'ye think I came up the Clyde yesterday wi' me arse hangin' oot me troosers?" - which I think roughly translates as: "Thanks awfully - but I rather think I won't, actually."


  1. Actually quite a few of your listed mendacities have also been claimed as likely outcomes by the Vote Leave crew. That is a reflection of the quality of debate.

    I suspect that whether Cameron goes or is replaced by one of his would-be successors, most of whom have ridiculously overclaimed the joys of Brexit, will depend on the size of the Remain victory. If it is as small as recent polls show, it will be more like the aftermath of the Jock liberation referendum, which has left a load of Wee 'Eck rays of sunshine looking for another go at the Tories an' their Tory cuts, rather than, you know, actually helping Nicola in running things. And the SNP actually won an election, albeit on home turf. I imagine that in those circs, faced with a formidable Boris/Rees-Mogg guerilla movement, Dave will stay in charge of a fractious party at war with itself, out of a feeling that it is important to put off as long as possible the advent of a Corbyn/Ken Livingston axis. Or at least until he can bear it no longer or is comprehensively 1992'd and asked to fall on his sword. That is as likely to lead to the splitting of the Conservative Party as it is to ensure any sort of smooth transition to an anti-EU Dave alternative. I imagine top qual bright sparks like Grayling and Bill Cash might work that out at some point.

    I doubt Dave will elect to go or be forced to go, in the absence of a Brexit vote. Why would he choose to or need to, notwithstanding
    the power of your characteristically understated "pile of their own filth" and "Lord Haw Haw medal" pro-Brexit argumentation. As far as I have seen, he has simply said he will not serve as PM for a full Parliament, not that he will leave in the event of a Leave vote, which your first sentence implies.

    1. The polls are unreliable. So much so that they must be ignored, it's a mistake to take them into account.

      If we want to judge sentiment at the moment across the whole country, our personal experience is no use and neither is anecdote.

      That leaves logic. A poor indicator, perhaps, but it'll have to do.

      The case for Exit is unanswerable. Logically, everyone should vote for it. The question is, will they?

      And the answer is, either you trust the electorate or you don't. I do. On 23 June, we're out.

      That makes it much easier to mend bridges in the Conservative Party and Labour, alike.

      A Remain vote would cause a bloodbath.

      Exit will require our MPs actually to do a bit of governing. Governing is hard work. And important work. And enjoyable/fulfilling. And grown up. They won't have time to do anything but laugh about the farcical predictions and childish insults of the recent past.

      Jacob Rees-Mogg was on the telly the other day saying he hoped David Cameron would stay on after the Exit vote. He knows all the other heads of state so he'll be the best man to negotiate our exit.


      He's just saying that. I was in favour of D. Hannan being parachuted into the Commons quickly to tale over the premiership (nothing to do with football). I still think that wouldn't be a bad idea. But how about Jacob Rees-Mogg?

      While Jacob Rees-Mogg is busy running the country, David Cameron can field the 500 telephone calls per day from 27 heads of government all asking his advice how to get off the sinking ship. Him and George Osborne both.

      Michael Gove for chancellor.

      Gauke's got to go. To be replaced by Dominic Raab.

      Priti Patel can do all the other jobs. With David Davis and maybe Liam Fox.

    2. Where might I find this unanswerable case set out in all its logical purity? There are some respectable arguments on both sides if you can bear to sift through the dross but most of these stem from legal or financial analysis. There has not been much evidence of ratiocination (hat tip FRM) on either side.

      And I was disappointed to see no place for Grayling in your post-Brexit Cabinet. Every Government should have its buffoon, though preferably not as PM. Hannan fills the single issue fanatic slot. Priti...well of course. But there must always be a place for someone who can say the same factually inaccurate thing five times in a very loud voice in the belief that it will then come true. I hope you will think again and give the great man another chance.

    3. Sovereignty
      On the basis that you can no more be a bit supreme than a bit pregnant, either the UK parliament is supreme or it isn't and, while the UK is in the EU, parliament isn't supreme.

      The 14 institutions of the EU are said by its supporters to be dominated by the parliament which is not true, the unelected commission has too much/all of the executive power.

    4. When Sir Jeremy champions diversity and extols the merits of a representative administration I always think of Mr Grayling, which brings me out in spots.

    5. My preferred candidate for PM, Michael Gove, played a blinder on Sky last night.

      Not quite sure why all the carping about whether Chris Grayling will be in a post-Brexit cabinet. Last time I looked, he was in the pre-Brexit cabinet - or did I miss him getting sacked?

      As for Dan Hannan being a "single issue fanatic" , that's a bit like describing Winston Churchill in the same terms. Hannan has a wide range of political interests - he just happens to believe that whether the British people should have the right to be governed (well or badly) by the politicians they elect is an extremely important question, and, as a politician, he is fighting for the outcome he wants (anyway, as an MEP, he has no power at all - he and his ilk can "suggest" proposals to the EU's unelected bureaucrats, but their pseudo-votes don't count for diddley-squat).

      As for post-Brexit economic plans (continue much as before, because we have a trade deficit with the EU, and they won't do anything to harm trade with a major customer for their goods, while negotiating trade deals with non-EU countries), it wouldn't half be nice if Remainers could explain how Britain intends tackling uncontrolled immigration and get numbers down to the "tens of thousands", as the leader of the Remain campaign - currently our Prime Minister - promised. Cameron and his chums are very good at telling us the ways in which they reckon the sky will fall in if we leave - not quite so good at telling us how they'll prevent it continuing to fall in if we stay.

    6. I have just read in tomorrow's Times newspaper that the Chancellor will increase taxes and cut public spending if the electorate vote Leave on 23 June 2016.

      Earlier I attended the Spectator magazine's second debate on the referendum where Lord Falconer assured us that the UK would become a "haven for criminals" if we vote Leave.

      Apparently the UK couldn't maintain law and order without access to EU DNA and fingerprint databases and the European Arrest Warrant – this, from a former Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary.

      And there are still eight days to go.

    7. I expect they'll be warning us about the Triffids, Sauron's army, the Antichrist, and how the the land will be gripped by perpetual winter for a century under the rule of the evil White Witch by then. I mean, are these desperate, lying toads deaf to the sound of our hysterical, mocking laughter? It seems they are.

  2. I smell toast - and I have been waiting for it for a very long while.

    1. Stand by with butter and marmalade, GCooper. I still can;t believe it's going to happen, but I sense it wouldn't take much to push Brexit over the line. Still, a 10% win for Remain and old dish-face remaining in power are still the most likely outcome. Unfortunately.

    2. I've sensed a distinct shift in the wind this past week. A fortnight ago I thought we would lose - and I still think we may have it stolen from us by electoral subterfuge - but if it's at least a reasonably fair fight, I think we might pull off that fabled Great Escape.

      As for Cameron, he is so hated that I do not believe he will survive, whatever the outcome. The Tories have always been the handiest with the knife when a leader is judged to have become a liability and the knives are being sharpened now. He cannot be gone fast enough for my taste.

    3. And it's not as if the haters on his own benches are a tiny minority. In March, Guido Fawkes had 141 out of 330 Tory MPs down as Brexiteers - and every one of them will be a damned sight angrier with Cameron now than they were then, given the appalling way he has conducted the Remain campaign, and the amount of right-wing legislation he's ditched in order to keep non-Tory Remainers on board. All he had to do to survive was to remain above the fray, as Harold Wilson did - instead of which, he bet the farm. Strange.